Accelerating demand for emergency ambulance services by older patients

January 01, 0001

Accelerating demand for emergency ambulance services by older patients

The aim of this population-based retrospective analysis of Ambulance Victoria’s metropolitan emergency ambulance transportation data for the period from financial year 1994-95 to 2007-08 by researchers from Australia was to measure the growth in emergency ambulance use across metropolitan Melbourne since 1995, to measure the impact of population growth and ageing on these services, and to forecast demand for these services in 2015.

The crude annual rate of emergency transportations across all age groups increased from 32 per 1000 people in 1994-95 to 58 per 1000 people in 2007-08. The rate of transportation for all ages increased by 75% over the 14-year study period, representing an average annual growth rate of 4.8% beyond that explained by demographic changes. Patients aged greater than or equal to 85 years were eight times as likely to be transported than those aged 45-69 years over this period. Forecast models suggest that the number of transportations will increase by 46%-69% between 2007-08 and 2014-15, disproportionately driven by increasing usage by patients aged greater than or equal to 85 years.

The researchers concluded: "These findings confirm a dramatic rise in emergency transportations over the study period, beyond that expected from demographic changes. Rates increased across all age groups, but more so in older patients. In the future, such acceleration is likely to have major effects on ambulance services and acute hospital capacity. This calls for further investigation of underlying causes and alternative models of care."

This demand and the issues of the previous study (http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/194_11_06061 1/ros11093_fm.html) may be reduced by end-of-life decisions clearly in place.

For the full abstract, click here.

MJA 194(11):574-578, 6 June 2011 © The Medical Journal of Australia 2011
The challenges of population ageing: accelerating demand for emergency ambulance services by older patients, 1995-2015. Judy Lowthian, Damien J Jolley, Andrea J Curtis et al. Correspondence to Judy Lowthian: [email protected]

Category: HSR. Health Services Research Keywords: ageing, demand, emergency, ambulance services, older patients, population-based retrospective analysis, journal watch.
Synopsis edited by Dr Stephen Wilkinson, Melbourne, Australia. Posted on Global Family Doctor 17 June 2011

Pearls are an independent product of the Cochrane primary care group and are meant for educational use and not to guide clinical care.

COVID-19 Resources

WONCA webinars, journal links and more

WONCA position statements

WONCA statements on a variety of issues

PEARLS

577 Individual behavioural counselling helps people to quit smoking 575 Antioxidant vitamin and mineral supplements may be beneficial in age-related macular degeneration 574 Oral antifungals effective for toenail onychomycosis 570 Decision aids beneficial for people facing health treatment or screening decisions 569 Computer-generated reminders on paper benefit quality of care