Models to quantification weight gain and weight loss

January 01, 0001

Models to quantification weight gain and weight loss

Obesity interventions can result in weight loss, but accurate prediction of the bodyweight time course requires properly accounting for dynamic energy imbalances. In this report, the researchers from the USA and Australia describe a mathematical modelling approach to adult human metabolism that simulates energy expenditure adaptations during weight loss. They also present a web-based simulator for prediction of weight change dynamics.

They show that the bodyweight response to a change of energy intake is slow, with half times of about 1 year. Furthermore, adults with greater adiposity have a larger expected weight loss for the same change of energy intake, and to reach their steady-state weight will take longer than it would for those with less initial body fat. Using a population-averaged model, they calculated the energy-balance dynamics corresponding to the development of the US adult obesity epidemic. A small persistent average daily energy imbalance gap between intake and expenditure of about 30 kJ per day underlies the observed average weight gain. However, energy intake must have risen to keep pace with increased expenditure associated with increased weight.

The average increase of energy intake needed to sustain the increased weight (the maintenance energy gap) has amounted to about 0·9 MJ per day and quantifies the public health challenge to reverse the obesity epidemic.

It is pleasing to see this area developing a more scientific approach.


For the full abstract, click here.

The Lancet 378(9793):826-837, 27 August 2011 © 2011 Elsevier Limited
Quantification of the effect of energy imbalance on bodyweight. Kevin D Hall, Gary Sacks, Dhruva Chandramohan et al. Correspondence to Kevin Hall: [email protected]

Category: T. Endocrine/Metabolic/Nutritional. Keywords: energy, imbalance, bodyweight, mathematical modeling, web-based simulator, journal watch.
Synopsis edited by Dr Stephen Wilkinson, Melbourne, Australia. Posted on Global Family Doctor 16 September 2011

Pearls are an independent product of the Cochrane primary care group and are meant for educational use and not to guide clinical care.

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